The ADHD Fix

How Donald Trump May Actually Win this Election

2016-10-24 07:59:45

By Dr. Henry J. Svec


Although we aren’t directly involved, as Canadians it’s pretty hard to ignore what is happening in the United States right now with the presidential election.  Many psychologists have weighed in and tried to analyze Mr. Trump, but frankly, that’s impossible to do and not very scientific or helpful.  It’s speculation at best.  Here is my take on why I think he may actually win the Presidency.


Mr. Trump is a construction, Real Estate success story.  He apparently knows how to get a job done on time and within budget, not pay people who do lousy work, get money from banks and others to fund projects and have a vision for real estate that seems to be a few moves ahead of most.  These are all characteristics of successful Construction-Developers.  The most important trait, however, that may be transferable to the political arena is the ability to adjust a strategy to new information to get the goal accomplished.  Start a building and find a zoning issue pop up, modify the design to meet that reality.  Hire a team to pour concrete at a set price, and part way through, they try to raise the price - well he knows how to take care of that.


Mr. Trump appears to have an incredible ability to adapt and change to survive despite what the environment or others do to him - a bit like a successful insect.  My father was an entomologist for the government studying how insects respond to various sprays and farming methods in the 1960s and 70s.  He told me once how insects could adjust their genetics quite quickly to adapt to the different farming practices and be immune from the effect of a spray when their offspring were born.  They adapted very quickly.


Mr. Trump is a lot like those insects.  He can adapt within days when new information is presented to him. He becomes immune to situations or factors that would have killed most political ambitions or dreams.  He is resilient as he continues to change and adapt to survive.  The recent claim that he would wait until the election was over before deciding if it were “rigged” cleverly diverted attention from other more embarrassing revelations that should have destroyed his bid for presidency.  He has just over 2 more weeks to continue to evolve into something that will have him survive and win this.


We may be able to use psychological principals, however, to look at the voters in America to explain their behaviour on election day.  When asked how they would vote by pollsters, most people don’t want to be identified with Mr. Trump.  Telling people you want Mr. Trump will result in punishment in the form of social ridicule or even physical violence. Fear of being exposed and punished will drive that behaviour and result in false polling evidence.   But like the Brexit vote, the truth is Americans want a change, but will only have the courage to say that in a private voting booth on election day.  I’m betting the likelihood of a Trump win by 80% now, and after the election, most who voted for him will act as if it were the biggest mistake the country could have made (very much like what is happening with Brexit today).   The insect is morphing as we speak and there is really nothing that can be done about it.